Next War: Poland Turn 8 Summary

 

NATO SoF are only able to do a little damage to air defences, Russian raids do heavy damage to airbases.

NATO strikes target airbases with attack helicopters, 1 helo destroyed and 1 is damaged.

In the air, Russia launches its rested air force in an attempt to retake the air advantage. They do inflict some damage, but suffer catastrophic damage. The air war is now all but over, though Russia does still have a good number of strike assets.

An attack by Russian subs in the North Baltic does 2 steps to the UK AMPH which is carrying 4 units of marines, 2 are lost. However, the large number of escorts means that all Russian subs, including the advanced nuclear ones, are wiped out. The entirety of the Russian navy has been destroyed.

The following landing in Riga does not go well for NATO and all the marines will be lost, however all Russian combat units are also destroyed, leaving just the HQ and support units.

A Russian counter attack to retake Bialystok is a 4-0 disaster when their air support is shot down and NATO helos and air all get through. The Russian southern armies are shattered.

Russian attacks near the NATO push into Kaliningrad area manage to push back the poles and get across the north-south river.

March 13th, CBC News, interview with NATO spokesperson

 

Please forgive the typo, I can't be bothered to go back and re-do it.

Interviewer: So are you saying that despite the reports, the landings in Latvia have not failed?

Spokesperson: Failure is not the word that we would use. While the forces have achieved less success than we had hoped, they have tied down a large number of Russian troops and inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy.

Interviewer: But, surely you heard the comments from the former general we had on earlier, that this looked like a colossal gamble that has backfired and that it should not have been done after the Russian attack on the fleet a couple of days ago.

Spokesperson: Everyone is entitled to their opinions, but the only ones who understand what is going on and the true goals of the operation are those in command. Everyone else should not second guess these …

March 13th. The Sun “Rats Flee Sinking Ship”

 

Loads of Russian generals are running away with their ill gotten gains as brave NATO troops get ready to storm their hideyhole. Convoys of expensive cars and tanks are driving north, out of Kaliningrad, which is a bit of Russia in-between Poland and Lithuania. After robbing some polish cities, these looting villains must surely know that justice is coming. Our brave boys have.....

March 13th, Time magazine “The Roads of Death”

 

The attacks on Bialystok by Russian forces earlier in the week was a text book example of the major flaws in Russian military planning. Repeated piecemeal attacks against elite and well positioned defenders resulted in only 100s of destroyed vehicles and 1000s of casualties. Russian air support had been cleared from the skies, while NATO strikes broke up any major attacking groups. In this short but ferociously bloody war, this day will surely go down as a catastrophic Russian defeat.

March 12th BBC News at 7

 

“There are reports of a Russian Submarine attack on the combined fleet in the Baltic. A large number of NATO ships, which are operating in the Baltic were struck by Russian submarines. The extent of the damage and the casualties amongst the marines, who are alleged to be aboard, is yet unclear, but is believed to be significant.”

The reports also suggest major losses amongst Russia's submarine force. With more on this we...

March 12th, Russia today Live News (translated from Russian)

 

“The desperate NATO attack, which crossed into Kaliningrad had been crushed by brave Russian soldiers defending their homes. NATO attacked and reached the river for less than 24 hours before a determined attack by the defenders drove them back. Every day the final Russian victory draws closer as the NATO war machine breaks down. The forces...”

Next War: Poland Turn 7 Summary

 

Storm

NATO SOF damage detection and SAMs as well as destroying 2 airbases but loose 4 of 6 teams.

Russian SOF damage some airbases and destroy the Italian wild weasel but loose 3 teams, both sides are running low on SOFs.

Due to the storm, Russia avoids fighting in the air and attempts to recover some of its air power for a new push next turn.

NATO push into Kaliningrad region and destroy a Russian HQ, but a German attack fails with losses. Poland liberates the last city near the Baltic sea and pushes on into Kaliningrad.

The RRC and supporting airborne forces liberate Bialystok and destroy the remaining Russian defenders.

Russia pushes to the East of the advance into Kaliningrad, trying to pinch it off. Spanish forces are driven back with even losses while the city of Goldap is again captured by Russia.

NATO forces liberate the city of Ponarth in the south and British Paras drive back the Belarusians.

Russian counterattacks across a bridge to help Kaliningrad fail with losses. If this had broken through they could cut off the NATO advance, and delayed the invasion of the main city by a week or more.

Russian HQs and support units begin to withdraw north out of Kalinigrad, to avoid being cut off if NATO breaks through.

Belarus begins to withdraw all its remaining units from Poland, having lost all of its front line combat units and having no more replacements.

Russian finally clears Augustow in eastern Poland, but it may be too late. NATO clears the first city in Kaliningrad.

March 10th, El Pais online “Military Coup Underway in Belarus”

 

 

 

A military coup is under way in Belarus, according to announcements made by a council of generals. The president of Belarus has not been seen since yesterday and there is no indication as to his present condition or location. There was sporadic gunfire in the early hours around the presidential palace, but it ceased some time ago.

The Belarusian military has suffered badly as part of Russian invasion of Europe and disquiet amongst many of its leading generals had been rumored for some time. The announcement also indicated that while the remnants of Belarus's land forces would be withdrawing, its air force would continue to support Russia.

This event will surely weaken the Russian efforts in the East of Poland where NATO forces are on the offensive.

 

March 9th 11:24am, TVP1 Breaking news (translated from Polish)

 

“We now return to our live coverage of the situation in Bialystok. Though there has been no official word it appears as though Russian forces have fled the city during the night after heavy fighting through out yesterday."

“Already there are images, taken by locals, of airborne forces form a variety of European nations moving through the streets. Though it is too early to declare the city liberated, it seems as though that is now only a matter of time. Some are calling this the turning point in this nearly 1 month old conflict.”

“To discuss the situation we have....”

March 8th, Copenhagen Post “Danish Forces Victorious, Advance into Kaliningrad Region”

 

 

 

A sudden attack by the Danish forces in North Poland has routed Russian forces and allowed a NATO advance into the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Many Russians were captured and abandoned and destroyed equipment can be seen lining the roads. Another attack by polish forces...

Next War: Poland Turn 6 Summary

 The air war is destructive for both sides, but Russian losses are far heavier and they NATO takes an air advantage. The air war is coming to a close.

Russian SoF attacks do major damage to air defences and airbases destroying the German wild weasel on the ground.

NATO SoF and strikes damage Russian air defences.

Russian artillery destroy the Belgian RRC brigade.

Other strikes for both sides mostly fail.

Russia overruns a NATO HQ in north east Poland, but other attacks only do light damage.

Polish and Danish attacks towards Kaliningrad do inflict heavy Russian losses and they push forward , liberating a Polish city on the border.

RRC inflicts losses on the Russian in Bialstok, but fail to push them out.

All attempts at clearing fail.

Allies take the Initiative.

March 8th, The Sunday Times Magazine “Augustow Resists”

 

It has been over a week since Russian soldiers entered the city of Augustow in eastern Poland. Despite the withdraw of Polish and NATO armed forces from the area, the city remains a battleground. There are constant attacks on the Russian occupiers by Polish soldiers hidden in the city as well as by the local population. This small scale fighting has taken a toll on...

March 7th, 8PM, Russian Government Press Conference

 

“Today, our brave soldiers destroyed the NATO command in Poland. Many high ranking officers have been killed or captured. It is time for NATO to accept the will of all Russian peoples to be united, and end their senseless war of aggression against us. It is the will of...."

Next War: Poland Turn 5 Summary

 Overcast, next turn clear

Russian SoF do light damage to Air defences, but damage some airbases destroying an F-35.

In the air the fight continues but Russian power is faiding, it is contested. 

NATO SoF do heavy damage to air defences, Russian air defences are badly damaged. 

Russian strikes mostly fail, NATO strikes do damage to Russian airbases and aircraft. 

Russia finishes cleaning the Baltics advances into north Poland.

Belarus attack in south, losses an attack helicopter but finishes off the last polish units.

Russian attack on RRC is a 1-2 loss, the advance here is broken.

A NATO supply base is lost in the north east.

Russian air support is near Goldap is early detected without fighter escort and is shot down but the attack reduces polish HQ.

Other russian attacks are mostly even for losses and damage.

The RRC begin their counter attack, eliminating 3 Russian units for 2 reductions

More NATO strikes destroy an airbase.

More Russian air support is early detected and shot down but NATO attack in Kaliningrad is still 1-0

Polish HQ over run in the north east.

RRC follow up retreating Russians and do a 1-1 over a bridge eliminating a Russian unit

Russians clear a city to the east of Kaliningrad

Russia fails to clear Augustow again.

Clears other cities but Belarus fails in the south

Next turn is contested, turn 7 will be storm

 

I forgot to take map images.

March 5th 10:00 United Kingdom Ministry of Defence Announcement

 

“Thank you for coming everyone. I will be giving a brief update now but will not be taking questions. I will be making a fuller statement tomorrow in the House of Commons when we will know more.”

“Since March 3^rd, Members of the Parachute Regiment, as part of the NATO Rapid Reaction Corps, along with aircraft of the Royal Air Force, have been involved in heaving fighting at Ostrolenka on the Narew river. The NATO forces in this area have suffered casualties. We can not provide any details on the numbers as of this time. The Russian attack has been defeated, and they are now retreating. The RRC remains combat effective, and is pursuing the Russian forces. Many prisoners have been taken and Russian losses are very heavy. We will...”

March 4th 14:22, CBC Breaking News

 

“We have some breaking new just coming in. Estonia has Surrendered. This is according to a spokesperson for the just announced “transitional government” who is now speaking along with members of the Russian military. There has been no word from the Estonian government for the last 24 hours, though representatives in other countries have said that the nation continues to resist any Russian occupation. We will shortly be ...”

Next War: Poland Turn 4 Summary

 The air war continues, while Russia maintains an advantage, every turn it weakens as more NATO forces arrive.

Russian SoF do 4 strikes on NATO airbases damaging some aircraft while NATO repays the favour in the same way.

Russia uses a lot of strike power to try to damage the RRC who are walking to the front line in the south. Most fail except for a couple of strike 1s, many strike aircraft are damaged.

Freed from needing to support combat, ,massed artillery and HQ strikes in Kaliningrad eliminate the polish units that crossed the border and damage others.

Constant NATO attacks are degrading Russian air defences.

Belarusian attacks do some damage, but they take more losses.

The massive Russian attack on the RRC is a disappointment after all the air-support is driven away it is 1-1 result.

Estonia continues to hold on.

Russians fail to clear the key city of Augustow which delays the forces advancing south from Lithuania.

Next turn will be an overcast Russian initiative turn.

March 2nd, China Daily “NATO forces driven from Kaliningrad”

 

NATO's short lived offensive into Kaliningrad has ended in failure. The attack, which entered the Russian territory almost a week ago has been driven back across the border according to sources. The attack was mounted by units of the Polish army which have sustained heavy casualties from Russian artillery. The question now is how long can NATO continue its aggression in the face of such determined defence.

March 1st, Der Speigle International “Airbases Damaged in Night of Chaos”

 

During the night of the First of March, Russian sabotaged groups launched attacks against airbases across Germany. Many of these bases were damaged but they remain operational. The government has appealed for calm as an increasingly concerned population worries about the war getting closer to home.

Next War Poland Turn 3 Summary

It is overcast and a contested turn. Next turn will be clear.

Russia maintains air advantage, both NATO and Russia take damage in the air, but NATO is being reinforced.

Russian strikes and SoF do only a little damage to air defences.

NATO do some damage to air defences but huge damage to airbases, destroying 3

Russian advances continue, destroying polish units including a HQ in the south and pushing down in the north and through the Baltics, but taking losses. The Polish counter attack into Kaliningrad is stopped, but another one recaptures Goldap.

Russia clears Kanuas in Lithuania and Zambrow in east Poland.

 

 

February 29th 11:24am, TVP1 Breaking news (translated from Polish)

 

“After heavy fighting throughout yesterday, Polish armed forces have declared the city of Goldap liberated. The Russian occupiers have fled back across the border into Kaliningrad which Polish forces have already started to enter. Despite the declaration, the army has asked residence to stay indoors unless absolutely necessary. We now go live to our correspondent on the ground...”

February 29th, Russia Today Update Bulletin

 

“As Russian and Belarusian continue their advance into Poland to secure the borders, they have captured their first high ranking general. Sources say that the polish 18^th division was destroyed in Eastern Poland and the General and his staff were killed or captured somewhere near the city of Zambrow. There has been no official word on the general's condition, but he is thought to be wounded. As the Russian advance goes on, it can be only a matter of time until NATO capitulates.”

February 28th, BBC News special report

 

“In the early hours of this morning there were a number of very large explosions across Russia. While the BBC is banned from reporting inside Russia, videos circulation on the internet show large explosions and, later, clouds of billowing smoke. While NATO refuses to comment, sources say that this was a very effective strike targeting multiple air facilities across the country. Submarines from the Royal Navy my have been involved.”

Next War Poland Turn 2 Summary

 NATO air reinforcements from UK, Spain, Germany, France, Denmark, Belgium and Canada have arrived, as has the Rapid Reaction Corps. Some land units from Denmark, Spain and Germany have also arrived.

The air battle is more even, Russian maintains an advantage, but is starting to take damage.

Russian SOF damage detection and don't achieve much else, only lose 1 team.

NATO does lot of damage to both Russian SAMs and Detection, also damaging more airbases and doing more collateral damage. Looses 2 teams

Russian missiles damage both SAMs and Detection but fail all others. NATO missiles all fail, but the German Wild Weasel strike does heavy damage to Russian SAMs. Russian air defences have been badly damaged.

Russian attacks are moderately successful, but the attack in Lithuania takes heavy losses.

All NATO counter attacks are disasters, all rolling over 7

The RRC flies into the eastern theatre, near Belarus, undetected.

Russia continues to advance but takes more losses, especially in Lithuania. Air Support is often forced away by SAMs or taking damage.

Belarussin forces a take a city, but have taking very heavy losses to elite Polish units.

2 Polish mechanised brigades enter a town in Kaliningrad doing heavy damage to the naval guards there.

Russia clears many places including Vilnius.

Russian has continued to advance and is clearing well, but losses are increasing, especially in Lithuania and in the air. Polish attacks have been very costly to NATO and have taken losses.

The next turn is overcast and contested.

The Russian arrow into Lithuania should be red.

 

February 27th 18:30, Televisión Española News (translated)

 

“Russian military command has just announced the capture of Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, as well as other regions and cities in the Baltics and Eastern Poland. Representatives of the Lithuanian government insist that they have not surrendered and are still fighting".

"Spanish forces are already on the ground in Poland, but weather or not they are already involved in combat at this time is unknown due to reporting restrictions.”

February 27th Gazeta Wyborcza (Translated) “Polish Forces Enter Kaliningrad”

 

Polish forces have captured the town of Bagrationovsk in Kaliningrad. Russian forces were driven from the town with heavy casualties as parts of the 11^th division crossed the border. The government insisted that not an inch of Poland will be given up and our forces will take the fight to the enemy.

February 27th, Times of India, “Russia releases images of captured French soldiers.”

Yesterday, Russia released images of what it claims are French soldiers captured in fighting around Oleko in north east Poland. The soldiers are alleged to be part of the 3rd Hussars Regiment which has been involved in combat near the Polish-Lithuanian border. There has so far been no commend from the French government.

February 25th 19:30 US Eastern time CNN News

 

“Continuing our rolling coverage of the war in Europe, an unbelievable video has come out from Lithuania. Allegedly filmed by members of the Latvian armed forces, the video shows a close range ambush conducted by German and Latvian forces on a large column of Russian vehicles. With me here in the studio to discuss it is respected military analyst Dr. …...."

February 25th ARD News (Translated from German)

 

“The armed forces have just announced that several attacks and sabotage attempts by Russian agents in Germany were stopped during the night. Several of the perpetrators are thought to have got away and members of the public are warned to be alert and report anything suspicious."

Next War Poland Turn 1 Summary

The above images are the start of turn 2

 Russia's initial missile attacks all failed. Its SoF raids were able to reduce the SAM and Detection tracks and destroy a polish airbase, but failed in all other missions. However, only 1 team was lost.
Russia has total air control and inflicted losses for little damage. Later strikes also mostly fail

NATO SoF raids reduce SAM track and inflict 4 strike 2 hits on Russian airbases. Strikes also add to the damage a little and cause collateral damage amongst ground attack aircraft and some of Russia's most advanced aircraft.

Russian initial attacks are generally successful in the Baltics and Northern Poland, some losses are taken, but more are inflicted. Follow-up attacks are less successful with losses general even amongst both sides. Russian air support suffers damage, but some intercepting NATO planes are also lost.

NATO's naval push into the southern Baltic is successful and a Russian sub is forced away after failing to stop them. On land, a single NATO counter attack near Goldap is a disaster losing 2 for 1.

In the southern Baltic 2 Russian SAGs and a SUB take on a Polish, Danish and German SAG with Polish and German subs. The polish ships are point detected. The result is a disaster for Russia. The end is a total loss of both SAGs and a Sub marker for just a strike 1 on the Polish SAG.

Russia continues its land advance taking cities and generally inflicting more damage than it takes.

February 24th, The Guardian, “Białystok Falls”

 

Late last night, Russian forces added Białystok to the list of cities they claimed to have captured. While some sources in Poland claim that fighting is continuing around the city it appears that, for the moment, Russia is in control of the city centre. Other cities Russia claims to have captured in the 3 days of fighting so far include Braniewo and Goldap as well as parts of Latvia. According to military sources, British forces may already be on the ground in Poland.

February 22nd, BBC 1 O'clock News

 

“Yesterdays naval confrontation in the Baltic was huge victory for NATO according to sources involved in the action. It is reported that much of the Russian Baltic fleet has been sunk or severely damaged as well as several Russian submarines. Though information is limited at this time it appears that the only NATO ships to suffer any damage were those from the Polish coastal defence force. We asked the the Defence minister about this earlier but he said he was unable to comment at this time...”

February 21st, Televised Speech by President Putin (translated)

“Yesterday, forces of the Russian Federation began a mission of liberation to free fellow Russian from the abuses they have endured over many years. This day marks the birth of a greater Russian and a union of all Russian speaking peoples. The forces of the West will swiftly crumble before the might of....”

 

February 20th 9:37 (Eastern Time), CNN breaking news

 

“We have some braking news. Reports arrived just moments ago that air raid sirens are sounding across Poland and the Baltics. Already, there have been explosions at various locations across Poland, but whether these were caused by missile strikes or sabotage is yet unknown. Russian troops are said to be crossing into the Baltic nations while Belorussian forces have entered Poland. We hope to go live shortly to our correspondent in Warsaw, but for now we bring you these images from....”

February 19th, NBC Nightly News

 

“NATO made the unprecedented announcement today, that it expects a Russia attack within the next 48 hours. The announcement, which was made remotely by the head of the alliance, indicated that the attack will come from both Russia and Belarus and target Poland as well as the Baltic states. Despite the fact that article 5, NATO's collective defense agreement, has yet to be triggered, armed forces from several states have already been seen entering Poland. Many states have warned their citizens of possible Russian missile or sabotage attacks. People have already been been seen leaving both the border areas and large cities.

The US president, who is beset by domestic troubles, only said that “it is not America's problem.”

The president of Hungry announced just hours ago that Hungry was leaving NATO and accused the west of fanning the flames of war.”

February 17th, CNN News

 

"Today, Europe stands on the brink. At 10am, US eastern time, the European Union rejected an ultimatum from Russia demanding self determination for the Russian speaking minority in the Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Pressure has been building since the end of the War in Ukraine and the departure of the US from NATO last year. We now go live to our correspondent in Poland...."

February 9th 2028, Le Monde in English, “Russian Military Exercises End Early”

 

The military exercises announced by Russia in October have come to an end 1 week earlier than planned. The exercises, which were supposed to last 20 days, appear to have ended last Friday. They took place in western Russia, less than 100 kilometers from the borders of Latvia and Estonia. The Baltic nations, which placed their armed forces on alert at the beginning the exercises, have confirmed that this will continue as the Russian forces which gathered for the exercises appear to still be in place.

It is unknown whether a second set of joint exercises with the Belorussian armed forces, which were announced for next week, will still go ahead.

January 15th 2028, Der Spiegel International edition, “Chancellor Defends Arms Production”

 

During his visit to the new Rheinmetall facilities in Oberhausen the chancellor addressed recent comments by the BSW. In an unusually combative speech he focused on the need for European defence and refused any hint of abandoning the Baltic nations. “The fate of Europe is at stake and we will not shirk our responsibilities in its defence.” was his final comment before continuing the tour.

October 4th 2027, Russia Today video

 "President Putin once again demanded today that Baltic European nations cease their persecution of ethnic Russians and said that the united Russian peoples will defend themselves if provoked. He made the announcement while attending a military review as administrative reforms gather pace. Now to discuss these issues he joins us now. Welcome …..."

September 8th 2027, BBC News at Ten

 

“In a shock development today, President Trump announced the United States exit from NATO. The announcement was made just hours ago, with the president stating that “NATO was an anti-American gang focused on ripping off the United States.” The president has had a number of disagreements with NATO counties over tariffs, the ICC, Ukraine, Iceland, Israel and others, but few expected he would go this far. What is next for the battered alliance remains to be seen.”

Return and Next War: Poland

It has been a long time since I posted anything on this blog. Mostly because I lost it and made another one focusing more on fantasy games.

But now I have found this one again, I will continue. I have just finished a play through of Next War: Poland. I had to use Vassal because I don't have enough space to get out the full game at the moment.

 The game report will mostly be in the narrative style, with some summaries at the end of each turn. 

Setting: It is Spring 2028. The US has withdrawn from NATO and is focused on major internal and economic difficulties. Europe is part way through a major military building program, while Russia is still recovering from losses taken during the Ukraine. While these processes are no where near complete, the possible return of the US to traditional positions in the coming years means that the window to take the Baltic for Russia is closing. Since the Autumn of 2027 Russia has been holding exercises and building up forces near the western borders. These things have not gone unnoticed by Europe.

I played the advance game and made quite a few house rules and used some special rules. 

Extended build up

Next War: Poland uses the Air restrictions, Refugees, Chemical Weapons, Article 5 Trumped (a).

 Roll for weather 1 turn in advance. 

Reduce Russian efficiency by 2 for everything except defense and clearing which are reduced by 1. Reduce NATO and Russian supplies, missiles and cruise missiles by half. Reduce NATO nuke points to 5 and reduce air-moble, sea and air transport. Reduce Russian special forces modifier to -1.

Russia and its allies have been attempting to influence European politics to reduce countries will to get involved. I have applied an arbitrary bonus for each nation to show its propensity to get involved and different levels for the results. A dice will determine the result. If a unit is already involved (such as air policing) then there is a -1 modifier.

0-3 Aggressive, 4-6 Normal, 7-9 Late, 10+ Withdraws from NATO

Aggressive – The nation has been actively building up its force to immediately react to a Russian attack.

Effect – At the start of the game place one random air unit in the ready box (and another in the flown box if the nation has 4 or more.) Place one special forces marker in the ready box. Add all other units (except one Naval) to a reinforcement cup, draw one a turn, starting from turn 1(if that nation has 7 or more starting units, draw 2 from turn 5). Also place 1 naval unit during the reinforcement step of turn 1.

Normal – The nation has been preparing, but domestic or political considerations have meant that it can only start serious actions once the conflict starts.

Effect – At the start of the game place one random air unit in the flown box and a special forces unit in the used box. All other units go into the reinforcement cups, draw one from turn 3. (if that nation has 7 or more starting units, draw 2 from turn 7).

Late – The nation's politics have been a problem for its military planning, and while part of Nato, there has been no major forward preparation.

Effect – Place all markers in a cup, draw from turn 5

Withdraws from NATO

Effect – All units do not take part. If a major nation, (more than 4 units) reduce starting supplies by 2. If France reduce nuke points to  0.

NATO Rapid Reaction Corps

The whole corps arrives as reinforcements on turn 1 unless the nation is late or has withdrawn from NATO.

Air policing mission: Denmark, starting units: 37/10 German mechanised (Latvia), 3 hus/fg French (Lithuania)

Nation Scores result

UK                 0                 6         Normal

Canada           0                 6         Normal

Belgium         0                 4           Normal

Denmark         0                1         Aggressive

Netherlands     +1             6          Normal

Sweden            + 1            9          Late

Finland            +1             7         Late

Italy                 +2              9         Late

Spain                +2             2        Aggressive

France             +2               6         Normal

Other              +2                7          Late

Germany         +3              3         Aggressive

Hungry            +8              11        Withdraw